Washington Post: The world’s largest majority-Muslim nation isn’t sure how to deal with Trump
The tumultuous beginning
of Donald Trump's presidency seems to have catapulted Indonesia into a highly
awkward situation.
Officials in the country, traditionally an
ally of the United States, have made apparently contradictory statements on
Trump's new immigration policies, prompting some analysts to suggest that the
government wants to signal its opposition to the rules without accidentally
picking a fight with the unpredictable U.S. president.
Soon after the executive order banning or
restricting travel from seven countries went into effect, Foreign Minister
Retno Marsudi said that Indonesia, which is not among the seven, had “deep
regrets about the policy.” Later, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo said: “We are
not affected by the policy. Why fret?” Johan Budi, his spokesman, said that
Widodo had “made sure that the policy of the American president does not have
an impact on Indonesian citizens. … Therefore, people are asked to remain
quiet.”
Then on Thursday, at a news conference in
Jakarta, Foreign Ministry spokesman Arrmanatha Nasir said Trump's policy was a
“mistake” that could prove counterproductive, but also expressed confidence
that the United States and Indonesia will nevertheless be cooperating more
soon.
As the largest country in Southeast Asia —
its 17,000 islands stretch across 735,358 square miles — Indonesia is at the
center of potential conflicts between the United States and the region's rising
power, China — especially tensions related to trade or the South China Sea.
As
a mostly Muslim country and a secular democracy, the country also walks a
tightrope between its Western alliances and solidarity with the Islamic world.
The explosive first weeks of the Trump administration have made that balance
much more tenuous, and a slip could mean a shift away from the United States.
Tjhin added that Widodo is
typically nonconfrontational and that “a fight with Trump would not be regarded
as productive.”
Among other possibilities, a U.S.
escalation of tensions with China or a move to protectionism that would throw
off the regional balance of power, Tjhin said.
“With Trump, his unpredictability and
capacity to do or say anything is no longer a surprise,” she said. “Indonesia
is really taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach.”
The Trump Organization has done business in
Indonesia, the world's fourth-most-populous nation, and local tycoon Hary
Tanoesoedibjo attended Trump's inauguration. Widodo publicly congratulated
Trump on his victory.
But on the day that the Foreign Ministry's
Nasir spoke, news broke that a disagreement had erupted out of nowhere between
the United States and Australia, Indonesia's neighbor and ally. Because even
friendly governments can inadvertently be drawn into public disputes, it's
possible that Indonesian officials believe the best strategy is simply to try
to avoid getting the new president's attention and hope to emerge unscathed.
Among Southeast Asian nations, Indonesia is
more or less right in the middle of Chinese and U.S. spheres of influence,
looking more often to Washington on security and increasingly to Beijing as a
business partner, according to Natalie Sambhi, a research fellow at the Perth
USAsia Center in Australia who studies Indonesia and geopolitics.
“Now there's a tension between wanting to
work productively and enjoy a good relationship with the Trump administration
and making sure to protect its identity as a Muslim country,” Sambhi said,
adding that if Trump were to become really unpopular in Indonesia, it might be
difficult for the government to make any progress in its relations with the
United States.
Or maybe, despite its best efforts,
Indonesia could become embroiled in a bizarre spat with Trump and hope to get
through it, as countries as diverse as Germany, Japan and Australia are now
doing.
“Hopefully, for example,” Sambhi said, “the
future of the U.S.-Australian alliance won't be shaped by a single phone call.”
By Vincent Bevins February 5, 2017
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